North Korea gears up to launch long-range rocket

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea is gearing up to fire a long-range rocket this month in a defiant move expected to raise the stakes of a global standoff over its missile and nuclear programs.

The North's announcement Saturday that it would launch the rocket between Dec. 10 and Dec. 22 came as President Barack Obama prepares for his second term and as South Korea holds a presidential election Dec. 19.

It would be North Korea's second launch attempt under leader Kim Jong Un, who took power following his father Kim Jong Il's death nearly a year ago. Some analysts have expressed skepticism that North Korea has corrected whatever caused the embarrassing misfire of its last rocket eight months ago. That launch earned the country widespread international condemnation.

A spokesman for North Korea's Korean Committee for Space Technology, however, said scientists have "analyzed the mistakes" made in the failed April launch and improved the precision of its Unha rocket and Kwangmyongsong satellite, according to the official Korean Central News Agency.

The statement said the launch was a request of late leader Kim Jong Il. He died on Dec. 17, 2011, and North Koreans are expected to mark that date this year with some fanfare. The space agency said the rocket would be mounted with a polar-orbiting Earth observation satellite, and maintained its right to develop a peaceful space program.

Washington considers North Korea's rocket launches to be veiled covers for tests of technology for long-range missiles designed to strike the United States, and such tests are banned by the United Nations.

"A North Korean 'satellite' launch would be a highly provocative act," State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said in Washington, D.C. "Any North Korean launch using ballistic missile technology is in direct violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions."

In 2009, North Korea conducted rocket and nuclear tests within months of Obama taking office.

China, the North's main ally and aid provider, also expressed concerns about the launch. Beijing's Foreign Ministry on Sunday acknowledged North Korea's right to the peaceful use of outer space, but said that had to be harmonized with restrictions including those set by the U.N. Security Council.

North Korea has capable short- and medium-range missiles, but long-range launches in 1998, 2006, 2009 and in April of this year ended in failure. North Korea is not known to have succeeded in mounting an atomic bomb on a missile but is believed to have enough weaponized plutonium for at least half a dozen bombs, according to U.S. experts. In 2010 it revealed a uranium enrichment program that could provide a second source of material for nuclear weapons.

Six-nation negotiations on dismantling North Korea's nuclear program in exchange for aid fell apart in early 2009.

There has been some skepticism about whether North Korea will succeed.

"Preparing for a launch less than a year after a failure calls into question whether the North could have analyzed and fixed whatever went wrong," David Wright, a physicist with the Union of Concerned Scientists, wrote on the organization's website this week.

North Korea said it chose a safe flight path so debris won't endanger neighboring countries. But there are still concerns over falling debris, and Japan's defense minister issued an order to missile units to prepare to intercept the rocket if it or its fragments threaten to hit Japan.

The first stage of the rocket is expected to fall in the Yellow Sea and the second stage in waters east of the Philippines, a South Korean Foreign Ministry official said Sunday. The official said Japanese officials provided the information after intercepting a North Korean-dispatched telex about the launch.

The message said North Korea plans to launch the rocket between 7 a.m. (2200 GMT) and noon (0300 GMT) during its planned launch window, the South Korean official said on condition of anonymity because of department rules.

South Korean officials have accused North Korea of trying to influence the South's presidential election with what they consider provocations meant to put pressure on voters and on the United States as the North seeks concessions. Conservative Park Geun-hye, the daughter of late President Park Chung-hee, is facing liberal Moon Jae-in in the South Korean presidential vote. Polls show the candidates in a close race.

North Korea is "working hard to influence the upcoming election. They may have a preferred candidate," South Korean President Lee Myung-bak said in an interview with a small group of foreign reporters in the presidential Blue House. "Even if they test fire a missile, it will not have a big impact on the election," Lee said, speaking through an interpreter.

Lee gave the interview Thursday but his office embargoed the publication of his comments until Sunday.

North Korea under its young leader has pledged to bolster its nuclear arsenal unless Washington scraps what the North calls a "hostile" policy. North Korea maintains that it is building bombs to defend itself against what it sees as a U.S. nuclear threat in the region.

This year is the centennial of the birth of national founder Kim Il Sung, the grandfather of Kim Jong Un. According to North Korean propaganda, 2012 is meant to put the North on a path toward a "strong, prosperous and great nation."

"North Korea appears to be under pressure to redeem its April launch failure before the year of the 'strong, prosperous and great nation' ends," said Koh Yu-hwan, a North Korea expert at Dongguk University in Seoul.

He added that a successful rocket launch would raise North Korea's bargaining power with South Korea and the United States "because it means the country is closer to developing missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads."

Before its last two rocket launches, North Korea notified the International Civil Aviation Organization and the International Maritime Organization about its intentions to launch. IMO spokeswoman Natasha Brown said that as of Friday the organization had not been notified by North Korea.

The North's announcement on Saturday comes two days after South Korea canceled what would have been the launch of its first satellite from its own territory. Scientists in Seoul cited technical difficulties. South Korea's Foreign Ministry said in a statement that the North's planned launch is "a grave provocation and a head-on challenge to the international community."

North Korea's missile and nuclear programs will be a challenge for Obama in his second term and for the incoming South Korean leader. Washington's most recent attempt to negotiate a freeze of the North's nuclear program and a test moratorium in exchange for food aid collapsed with the April launch.

In Japan, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said he would coordinate with the U.S., South Korea, China and Russia in strongly urging the North to refrain from the rocket launch. Kyodo News agency said Japan also postponed high-level talks with North Korea scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague condemned North Korea's launch plan, saying a failure by North Korea to cancel the firing will lead to a further response by the international community.

The Korean Peninsula remains in a state of war because the 1950-53 Korean conflict ended in a truce, not a peace treaty. Washington stations nearly 30,000 troops in South Korea as a buttress against any North Korean aggression. Tens of thousands more are in nearby Japan.

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Associated Press writers Jean H. Lee, Hyung-jin Kim and Sam Kim in Seoul, Jill Lawless in London, Thomas Strong in Washington, D.C., and Elaine Kurtenbach in Tokyo contributed to this report.

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Katzenberg, Spielberg attend Governors Awards

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Tom Hanks. Quincy Jones. Kristen Stewart. Warren Beatty. Quentin Tarantino. George Lucas. Steven Spielberg. Kirk Douglas. Amy Adams. Richard Gere.

These and other famous folks came to the film academy's Governors Awards Saturday to honor filmmakers whose names may not be as well known, but whose contributions to the industry have affected movie-lovers everywhere.

Documentarian D.A. Pennebaker helped make the medium mainstream with his direct-cinema approach. George Stevens, Jr., founded the American Film Institute and established the Kennedy Center Honors. Hal Needham developed new ways of performing and directing death-defying movie stunts. DreamWorks Animation chief Jeffrey Katzenberg raised hundreds of millions of dollars for charity.

Octogenarians Pennebaker, Stevens and Needham received honorary Oscars for their distinguished careers and Katzenberg was recognized with the Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Award at the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences' Governors Awards ceremony, held at the Ray Dolby Ballroom at Hollywood and Highland Center.

The film academy has long awarded honorary Oscars, but established a new tradition four years ago of presenting those statuettes at a private dinner party where there are no time limits on speeches. Portions of the untelevised event may be included in the Feb. 24 Academy Awards telecast.

Stars mingled in the ballroom and dined on filet mignon and banana cream pie before academy president Hawk Koch urged them to "finish the deals, make the deals" so the program could begin.

Each honoree was introduced by a pair of stars and a short film of their work.

Michael Moore and Sen. Al Franken introduced Pennebaker. Moore called him an inspiration and the inventor of the modern documentary. Pennebaker ditched the tripod and carried his camera on his shoulder, and "all filmmaking changed," Moore said, "nonfiction and fiction."

The 87-year-old Pennebaker seemed to thank every colleague from his six-decade career during a nearly 20-minute speech that prompted his family to signal him to finish and inspired a joke from Will Smith later in the evening.

"Before I get started, D.A. Pennebaker has a couple more people he wanted to thank," Smith cracked.

Sidney Poitier and Annette Bening introduced Stevens, speaking of his commitment to honoring, preserving and furthering the art of film. In accepting his Oscar, Stevens thanked his late father for encouraging him to consider film a timeless art and "for opening the door for me to a creative life."

Needham "pushed the boundaries of what could be done in action," Tarantino said as he introduced the stuntman and director, adding, "I've ripped off many shots from you."

Al Ruddy, Oscar-winning producer of "The Godfather," described Needham as "one of the good guys" and "a gift to any producer." Ruddy told a story about making 1982's "Megaforce," which Needham directed. The stuntman helped design a rocket for the film's action sequences, and when brought it to the Goldwyn lot to demonstrate it, he accidentally launched it into a new soundstage and burnt the whole thing down. Later, while filming another stunt, Needham crashed a motorcycle and got a concussion, but he was back on set shooting the next morning.

The 81-year-old Needham called himself "the luckiest man alive": He grew up a sharecropper's son with eight years' education and went on to work with Billy Wilder, Jimmy Stewart and John Wayne. Now he's getting an Academy Award.

"My mom's looking down on tonight with a big smile on her face," he said, choking up and dabbing at his eyes with a handkerchief.

He closed by thanking "the entire Hollywood community for allowing me to be a part of it."

Tom Hanks and Will Smith introduced Katzenberg by joking about his persistent calls for charitable donations. The DreamWorks executive has raised more than $230 million as chairman of the Motion Picture and Television Fund foundation.

"Jeffrey has no problem asking for way too much money," Smith said.

"Mostly, all I did was pick up the phone and ask you," Katzenberg said as he accepted his award. "It's you who did it. You who gave of your time, your talent, your money, your hearts. Because that's what you do. That is what Hollywood does."

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AP Entertainment Writer Sandy Cohen is on Twitter: www.twitter.com/APSandy .

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Online:

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Asperger's dropped from revised diagnosis manual

CHICAGO (AP) — The now familiar term "Asperger's disorder" is being dropped. And abnormally bad and frequent temper tantrums will be given a scientific-sounding diagnosis called DMDD. But "dyslexia" and other learning disorders remain.

The revisions come in the first major rewrite in nearly 20 years of the diagnostic guide used by the nation's psychiatrists. Changes were approved Saturday.

Full details of all the revisions will come next May when the American Psychiatric Association's new diagnostic manual is published, but the impact will be huge, affecting millions of children and adults worldwide. The manual also is important for the insurance industry in deciding what treatment to pay for, and it helps schools decide how to allot special education.

This diagnostic guide "defines what constellations of symptoms" doctors recognize as mental disorders, said Dr. Mark Olfson, a Columbia University psychiatry professor. More important, he said, it "shapes who will receive what treatment. Even seemingly subtle changes to the criteria can have substantial effects on patterns of care."

Olfson was not involved in the revision process. The changes were approved Saturday in suburban Washington, D.C., by the psychiatric association's board of trustees.

The aim is not to expand the number of people diagnosed with mental illness, but to ensure that affected children and adults are more accurately diagnosed so they can get the most appropriate treatment, said Dr. David Kupfer. He chaired the task force in charge of revising the manual and is a psychiatry professor at the University of Pittsburgh.

One of the most hotly argued changes was how to define the various ranges of autism. Some advocates opposed the idea of dropping the specific diagnosis for Asperger's disorder. People with that disorder often have high intelligence and vast knowledge on narrow subjects but lack social skills. Some who have the condition embrace their quirkiness and vow to continue to use the label.

And some Asperger's families opposed any change, fearing their kids would lose a diagnosis and no longer be eligible for special services.

But the revision will not affect their education services, experts say.

The new manual adds the term "autism spectrum disorder," which already is used by many experts in the field. Asperger's disorder will be dropped and incorporated under that umbrella diagnosis. The new category will include kids with severe autism, who often don't talk or interact, as well as those with milder forms.

Kelli Gibson of Battle Creek, Mich., who has four sons with various forms of autism, said Saturday she welcomes the change. Her boys all had different labels in the old diagnostic manual, including a 14-year-old with Asperger's.

"To give it separate names never made sense to me," Gibson said. "To me, my children all had autism."

Three of her boys receive special education services in public school; the fourth is enrolled in a school for disabled children. The new autism diagnosis won't affect those services, Gibson said. She also has a 3-year-old daughter without autism.

People with dyslexia also were closely watching for the new updated doctors' guide. Many with the reading disorder did not want their diagnosis to be dropped. And it won't be. Instead, the new manual will have a broader learning disorder category to cover several conditions including dyslexia, which causes difficulty understanding letters and recognizing written words.

The trustees on Saturday made the final decision on what proposals made the cut; recommendations came from experts in several work groups assigned to evaluate different mental illnesses.

The revised guidebook "represents a significant step forward for the field. It will improve our ability to accurately diagnose psychiatric disorders," Dr. David Fassler, the group's treasurer and a University of Vermont psychiatry professor, said after the vote.

The shorthand name for the new edition, the organization's fifth revision of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual, is DSM-5. Group leaders said specifics won't be disclosed until the manual is published but they confirmed some changes. A 2000 edition of the manual made minor changes but the last major edition was published in 1994.

Olfson said the manual "seeks to capture the current state of knowledge of psychiatric disorders. Since 2000 ... there have been important advances in our understanding of the nature of psychiatric disorders."

Catherine Lord, an autism expert at Weill Cornell Medical College in New York who was on the psychiatric group's autism task force, said anyone who met criteria for Asperger's in the old manual would be included in the new diagnosis.

One reason for the change is that some states and school systems don't provide services for children and adults with Asperger's, or provide fewer services than those given an autism diagnosis, she said.

Autism researcher Geraldine Dawson, chief science officer for the advocacy group Autism Speaks, said small studies have suggested the new criteria will be effective. But she said it will be crucial to monitor so that children don't lose services.

Other changes include:

—A new diagnosis for severe recurrent temper tantrums — disruptive mood dysregulation disorder. Critics say it will medicalize kids' who have normal tantrums. Supporters say it will address concerns about too many kids being misdiagnosed with bipolar disorder and treated with powerful psychiatric drugs. Bipolar disorder involves sharp mood swings and affected children are sometimes very irritable or have explosive tantrums.

—Eliminating the term "gender identity disorder." It has been used for children or adults who strongly believe that they were born the wrong gender. But many activists believe the condition isn't a disorder and say calling it one is stigmatizing. The term would be replaced with "gender dysphoria," which means emotional distress over one's gender. Supporters equated the change with removing homosexuality as a mental illness in the diagnostic manual, which happened decades ago.

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AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner .

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Report: At least three dead after Japan tunnel collapse

TOKYO (Reuters) - A tunnel on a major highway in central Japan collapsed on Sunday, killing at least three people and starting a blaze, Japanese media reported.

Attempts to rescue those still trapped inside the smashed tunnel, which began spewing smoke after concrete ceiling panels fell onto the road, have been interrupted for fear they might trigger another collapse.

Three bodies have been found so far, television networks Fuji and Asahi said.

The fire service earlier said at least seven people were unaccounted for in the 4.7 km (2.8-mile) tunnel in Yamanashi prefecture, about 80 km (50 miles) west of Tokyo on the Chou Expressway, a main road connecting the capital to western Japan.

"Dense smoke was coming out as if it covers the entire mountain," witness Kiyoko Toyomura told Japanese news agency Kyodo.

The fire service said the blaze was extinguished about 11 a.m. - some three hours after the accident occurred.

The operator of the highway, Central Nippon Expressway, said a 50-60 meters (165 feet) long section of ceiling panels fell to the road, and it was looking into the cause of the accident.

Motorists described narrow escapes from falling debris, and a long walk through the darkness after abandoning their cars.

"When I was driving in the tunnel, concrete pieces fell down suddenly from the ceiling," a man in his 30s told public broadcaster NHK. "I saw a crushed car catching fire. I was frightened, left my car and walked for about an hour to get out of the tunnel."

In 1996 a tunnel in Hokkaido, northern Japan, collapsed and falling rocks crushed cars and a bus, killing 20 people.

NHK reporter Yoshio Goto, caught in Sunday's accident, hit the accelerator and managed to drive out.

"But it was a bit too late and pieces of ceiling fell on my car. I kept pressing the pedal and managed to get out," he said. "Then when I looked around, I saw half of the car ceiling was crushed."

(Reporting by Hideyuki Sano; Editing by Daniel Magnowski)

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Officials say bomb kills 3 in southern Afghanistan

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — Provincial officials say a suicide car bomber killed three civilians and wounded another six in Afghanistan's southern Uruzgan province.

Abdullah Himmat, a spokesman for the provincial governor, said Saturday's blast occurred near the police headquarters of Uruzgan's Dehra Wood district.

Fareed Ayal, a spokesman for the provincial police, says the car apparently detonated prematurely before it reached the gate of the headquarters.

Insurgents and Taliban fighters often use suicide bombers to target government buildings, convoys and foreign troops.

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JLo tones down concert in Indonesia

JAKARTA, Indonesia (AP) — Jennifer Lopez wowed thousands of fans in Indonesia, but they didn't see as much of her as concertgoers in other countries — the American pop star toned down both her sexy outfits and her dance moves during her show in the world's most populous Muslim country, promoters said Saturday.

Lopez's "Dance Again World Tour" was performed in the country's capital, Jakarta, on Friday in line with promises Lopez made to make her show more appropriate for the audience, said Chairi Ibrahim from Dyandra Entertainment, the concert promoter.

"JLo was very cooperative ... she respected our culture," Ibrahim said, adding that Lopez's managers also asked whether she could perform her usual sexy dance moves, but were told that "making love" moves were not appropriate for Indonesia.

"Yes, she dressed modestly ... she's still sexy, attractive and tantalizing, though," said Ira Wibowo, an Indonesian actress who was among more than 7,000 fans at the concert.

Another fan, Doddy Adityawarman, was a bit disappointed with the changes.

"She should appear just the way she is," he said, "Many local artists dress even much sexy, much worse."

Lopez changed several times during her 90-minute concert along with several dancers, who also dressed modestly without revealing their chests or cleavage.

Most Muslims in Indonesia, a secular country of 240 million people, are moderate. But a small extremist fringe has become more vocal in recent years.

They have pushed through controversial laws — including an anti-pornography bill — and have been known to attack anything perceived as blasphemous, from transvestites and bars to "deviant" religious sects.

Lady Gaga was forced to cancel her sold-out show in Indonesia in May following threats by Islamic hard-liners, who called her a "devil worshipper."

Lopez will also perform in Muslim-majority Malaysia on Sunday.

"Thank you Jakarta for an amazing night," the 43-year-old diva tweeted to her 13 million followers Saturday.

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South Africa makes progress in HIV/AIDS fight

JOHANNESBURG (AP) — In the early 90s when South Africa's Themba Lethu clinic could only treat HIV/AIDS patients for opportunistic diseases, many would come in on wheelchairs and keep coming to the health center until they died.

Two decades later the clinic is the biggest ARV (anti-retroviral) treatment center in the country and sees between 600 to 800 patients a day from all over southern Africa. Those who are brought in on wheelchairs, sometimes on the brink of death, get the crucial drugs and often become healthy and are walking within weeks.

"The ARVs are called the 'Lazarus drug' because people rise up and walk," said Sue Roberts who has been a nurse at the clinic , run by Right to Care in Johannesburg's Helen Joseph Hospital, since it opened its doors in 1992. She said they recently treated a woman who was pushed in a wheelchair for 3 kilometers (1.8 miles) to avoid a taxi fare and who was so sick it was touch and go. Two weeks later, the woman walked to the clinic, Roberts said.

Such stories of hope and progress are readily available on World AIDS Day 2012 in sub-Saharan Africa where deaths from AIDS-related causes have declined by 32 percent from 1.8 million in 2005 to 1.2 million in 2011, according to the latest UNAIDS report.

As people around the world celebrate a reduction in the rate of HIV infections, the growth of the clinic, which was one of only a few to open its doors 20 years ago, reflects how changes in treatment and attitude toward HIV/AIDS have moved South Africa forward. The nation, which has the most people living with HIV in the world at 5.6 million, still faces stigma and high rates of infection.

"You have no idea what a beautiful time we're living in right now," said Dr. Kay Mahomed, a doctor at the clinic who said treatment has improved drastically over the past several years.

President Jacob Zuma's government decided to give the best care, including TB screening and care at the clinic, and not to look at the cost, she said. South Africa has increased the numbers treated for HIV by 75 percent in the last two years, UNAIDS said, and new HIV infections have fallen by more than 50,000 in those two years. South Africa has also increased its domestic expenditure on AIDS to $1.6 billion, the highest by any low-and middle-income country, the group said.

Themba Lethu clinic, with funding from the government, USAID and PEPFAR, is now among some 2,500 ARV facilities in the country that treat approximately 1.9 million people.

"Now, you can't not get better. It's just one of these win-win situations. You test, you treat and you get better, end of story," Mahomed said.

But it hasn't always been that way.

In the 1990s South Africa's problem was compounded by years of misinformation by President Thabo Mbeki, who questioned the link between HIV and AIDS, and his health minister, Manto Tshabalala-Msimang, who promoted a "treatment" of beets and garlic.

Christinah Motsoahae first found out she was HIV positive in 1996, and said she felt nothing could be done about it.

"I didn't understand it at that time because I was only 24, and I said, 'What the hell is that?'" she said.

Sixteen years after her first diagnosis, she is now on ARV drugs and her life has turned around. She says the clinic has been instrumental.

"My status has changed my life, I have learned to accept people the way they are. I have learned not to be judgmental. And I have learned that it is God's purpose that I have this," the 40-year-old said.

She works with a support group of "positive ladies" in her hometown near Krugersdorp. She travels to the clinic as often as needed and her optimism shines through her gold eye shadow and wide smile. "I love the way I'm living now."

Motsoahae credits Nelson Mandela's family for inspiring her to face up to her status. The anti-apartheid icon galvanized the AIDS community in 2005 when he publicly acknowledged his son died of AIDS.

None of Motsoahae's children was born with HIV. The number of children newly infected with HIV has declined significantly. In six countries in sub-Saharan Africa — South Africa, Burundi, Kenya, Namibia, Togo and Zambia —the number of children with HIV declined by 40 to 59 percent between 2009 and 2011, the UNAIDS report said.

But the situation remains dire for those over the age of 15, who make up the 5.3 million infected in South Africa. Fear and denial lend to the high prevalence of HIV for that age group in South Africa, said the clinic's Kay Mahomed.

About 3.5 million South Africans still are not getting therapy, and many wait too long to come in to clinics or don't stay on the drugs, said Dr. Dave Spencer, who works at the clinic .

"People are still afraid of a stigma related to HIV," he said, adding that education and communication are key to controlling the disease.

Themba Lethu clinic reaches out to the younger generation with a teen program.

Tshepo Hoato, 21, who helps run the program found out he was HIV positive after his mother died in 2000. He said he has been helped by the program in which teens meet one day a month.

"What I've seen is a lot people around our ages, some commit suicide as soon as they find out they are HIV. That's a very hard stage for them so we came up with this program to help one another," he said. "We tell them our stories so they can understand and progress and see that no, man, it's not the end of the world."

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Why Obama is pushing for stimulus in 'fiscal cliff' deal

How about a little government economic stimulus?

That may sound incongruous considering the budget deficit and the push from Republicans to cut government spending.

But President Obama’s first offer to avoid going over the "fiscal cliff" holds out the hope of at least some stimulus. This would include extending the 2 percentage point Social Security payroll tax cut, boosting a tax incentive to businesses, establishing a $50 billion bank for long-term infrastructure projects, and extending unemployment benefits.

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The total bill: about $255 billion out of the federal government's pocket – an amount the GOP would likely say needs to be offset by spending cuts elsewhere.

The argument in favor of such stimulus? The tax measures, at least, could minimize the drag on the economy from Mr. Obama's proposed tax increases on the wealthy.

“The increases in the top two income tax brackets would put a drag on consumption, so I think, from the Obama point of view, the spending or tax cuts are designed to offset that drag to consumption,” says Michael Brown, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, N.C.

But to some budget experts, Obama’s list seems more like an opening round of negotiations, where he has asked for a lot more than he will get.

“It looks to me like these are bargaining chips,” says Pete Davis of Davis Capital Ideas, which advises Wall Street firms. “Even most Democrats had given up on the prospect of getting the payroll tax cut extended.”

Mr. Davis considers the odds of most of the stimulus proposals passing Congress “very low.”

What's needed most, say others, is just buckling down and negotiating an end to the fiscal cliff. “Cancelling the fiscal cliff is economic stimulus,” says Stan Collender, a budget expert and partner at Qorvis Communications in Washington.

If Obama's stimulus were passed, however, here is a look at the impact the four elements might have.

SOCIAL SECURITY PAYROLL TAX CUT

The largest chunk of the Obama plan is the extension of the payroll tax cut. This is the money that comes out of an individual’s paycheck as a contribution to Social Security. Two years ago, in an effort to stimulate the economy, Congress decreased the individual contribution from 6.2 percent to 4.2 percent. The employer’s contribution of 6.2 percent remained unchanged.

The Obama administration estimates extending the cuts would cost the government as much as $115 billion in revenue.

The argument for extending the tax cut is that it helps lower-income workers who live paycheck to paycheck. “The difference in the paycheck might be the ability to pay the electric bill for someone or the chance to go to a sit-down restaurant once a month,” says Chris Christopher, an economist at IHS in Lexington, Mass.

The argument against continuing the cut is that it is weakening the Social Security Trust Fund. In order to make up for the loss of contributions, the government taps the general tax revenues, says Pamela Tainter-Causey, a spokeswoman for the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare.

“It sets up Social Security to compete for funding from the general fund,” she says. “It’s a perfect set up for people who are gunning for the program and claim we can’t afford it now.”

BUSINESS TAX INCENTIVE

The second largest program proposed by Obama would be the extension of accelerated depreciation for business, which would cost the US Treasury about $65 billion in fiscal year 2013, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Two years ago, business was allowed to accelerate the write-off of 100 percent of its spending on certain capital equipment. Capital spending on equipment and computer software soared by 18.3 percent in 2011.

Then, this year, the benefit to business was cut in half to 50 percent. Capital spending sank in the third quarter by 2.7 percent compared with the same quarter the prior year. With business interest in using the tax break diminishing, economist Gregory Daco of IHS says “it’s a goner.”

INFRASTRUCTURE BANK

Obama has also proposed a $50 billion infrastructure bank. The idea is to fund roads, bridges, tunnels and other large projects that last for a long period of time. “At the moment the funding is done on a cash basis – you have to pay for it as you build it,” says Mr. Collender.

Democrats have been trying to get Congress to fund the bank for the past 10 years, he says. “It does not have a chance of getting through the House," which is controlled by the Republicans, says Mr. Collender.

UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS

And, finally, Obama wants to extend unemployment benefits, which would cost about $30 billion.

Under current law, if Congress does nothing, the maximum number of weeks in which an individual could receive jobless will drop to 26 from the current 73 weeks for states with unemployment over 9 percent and 63 weeks for states with unemployment over 7 percent.

If Congress does nothing about the program during the lame-duck session, some 2.1 million jobless will lose their benefits in the first week of January, says Judy Conti, a federal advocacy coordinator at the National Employment Law Project (NELP) in Washington. By the end of the March, she says, another 900,000 people will lose their benefits.

“Forty percent of the unemployed are long term unemployed,” she says. “They have been out of the workforce for over six months.”

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Afghanistan presses Pakistan to free Taliban

ISLAMABAD (AP) — The Afghan foreign minister pressed Pakistan on Friday to free more Taliban detainees in Islamabad's custody in a bid to help coax the militant group into peace negotiations to end the 11-year-old war in Afghanistan, officials said.

Afghanistan's top diplomat, Zalmay Rasoul, pushed his case in talks with his Pakistani counterpart, Hina Rabbani Khar, during a one-day visit to Islamabad. Their discussions followed Pakistan's decision earlier this month to release nine Taliban prisoners in a move that Kabul welcomed as a positive first step and an indication that Islamabad supports the stalled Afghan peace process.

The cooperation of Pakistan, which has longstanding ties to the Taliban, is seen as key to jumpstarting an Afghan peace process that has made little headway since it began several years ago, hobbled by distrust among the major players, including the United States. The Afghan and U.S. governments accuse Islamabad of backing insurgents — an allegation Pakistan denies — and say many militant leaders are hiding in the country.

With Afghan presidential elections and the withdrawal of most foreign combat troops looming in 2014, Afghanistan and its international allies are trying to push a peace process with the Taliban to bring an end to the conflict.

Afghanistan needs Pakistan's help in reaching out to top Taliban leaders, but still insists that peace talks be led by Afghans, saying it will fight those who try to interfere.

Rasoul, the Afghan foreign minister, was expected to press Pakistan to free more Taliban prisoners during his one-day visit to Islamabad on Friday, including the militant group's former deputy leader, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, said an Afghan official who spoke on condition of anonymity ahead of the talks.

It's unclear whether Pakistan made any concrete commitments to free additional prisoners, including Baradar, who was captured in Pakistan in 2010 because he reportedly was having secret talks with the Afghans.

The Pakistani foreign minister said during a joint news conference that the release of prisoners was "discussed thoroughly, and I'm quite sure that we would all agree that we are making forward movement."

Khar said that the two countries had "operationalized" a joint commission announced last year to address the prisoner release issue. They also agreed to hold a conference of Muslim scholars in January to speak out against terrorism.

Pakistan also shared with Afghanistan a draft of a strategic partnership agreement the two countries hope to negotiate over the next year, Khar said. Afghanistan signed a similar agreement with Pakistan's archenemy India last year, causing consternation in Islamabad.

The Afghan foreign minister welcomed Pakistan's efforts, saying "we want all Afghan Taliban to return in their country, join the constitutional political process there and play their part in furthering the construction and development of our nation."

The Taliban prisoners released earlier by Pakistan, including some senior leaders, are believed to still be in the country, said the Afghan official who spoke ahead of Rasoul's visit. Afghanistan hopes the freed militants will play a constructive role in the peace process, the official said, while acknowledging that it is too soon to know what role, if any, they will hold.

While it's unclear whether the Taliban are interested in negotiating peace, the official maintained that there are indeed key Taliban figures who support a political process to end the violence, but that some of them are afraid to establish direct contact with the Afghan government because some of those who did in the past were killed or detained.

Afghanistan wants Pakistan to encourage Taliban leaders to join the Afghan-led peace process and allow Taliban negotiators to travel to third countries for talks without detaining them or putting pressure on their families, the official said.

Informal contacts have been established with Taliban officials in recent years, but so far no formal negotiations have begun.

Waheed Muzhda, a political analyst in Kabul and an expert on Taliban issues, told The Associated Press in a recent interview that about two months ago he met informally in Qatar with several Taliban figures, including Tayyab Agha, a personal emissary of Taliban leader Mullah Omar, and Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai, a former deputy at two ministries during the Taliban regime.

He said the Taliban are interested in talks, but with the U.S. and not with the Afghan government. If any negotiations begin, they would be between the U.S. and the Taliban, he said.

"If there was a good result from that, then the Afghan government could be involved," he said.

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Riechmann reported from Kabul, Afghanistan. Associated Press Writer Rahim Faiez contributed to this report from Kabul.

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